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Illusory Effects of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID19 in Europe

June 8, 2020  -  Stefan Homburg, Christof Kuhbandner

Abstract

Flaxman et al. (Nature, 8 June 2020, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2405-7, 2020) infer that non-pharmaceutical interventions conducted by several European countries considerably reduced effective reproduction numbers and saved millions of lives. We show that their method is ill-conceived and that the alleged effects are artefacts. Moreover, we demonstrate that the United Kingdom?s lockdown was both superfluous and ineffective.

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