External Course

A TALE OF TWO SCIENTIFIC PARADIGMS: CONFLICTING SCIENTIFIC OPINIONS ON WHAT “FOLLOWING THE SCIENCE” MEANS FOR SARS-COV-2 AND THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

August, 2021

DSA ADS Course - 2021

COVID19, Public Policy, Health Policy, Modeling, Model-driven Science, Empirically-driven Science, Lockdowns, Non-pharmaceutical Interventions, NPIs

Discuss 2 paradigms: Model-driven Science vs. Empirically-driven Science

Forecasting for COVID19 has Failed

June, 2020

DSA ADS Course - 2021

Forecasting, COVID19, John Ioannidis, Public Policy, Health Policy, Causal Inference, Forensic Medicine, Causality, Intuitive Causation, Probabilistic Causation

Forecasting is usually impossible in high causal density environments. Scenario planning with applied probability and adaptation to near real-time data is optimal strategy. Epidemic forecasting is usually a fools errand yet appropriate analysis of experience and historical precedent is helpful.

Review of Causal Inference in Forensic Medicine

March, 2020

DSA ADS Course - 2021

Causal Inference, Forensic Medicine, Causality, Intuitive Causation, Probabilistic Causation

Causality - intuitive causation vs. probabilistic causation. Probabilistic causation is optimal yet discuss other techniques to seek true causation. Sometimes true causation is impossible to find and discuss optimal strategy under such circumstances.

Abstract

DABUS AI System Granted Patent by Australian Court

August, 2021

DSA ADS Course - 2021

Artificial Intelligence, Patent Law, Patents, Intellectual Property

See attached decision and at: https://www.judgments.fedcourt.gov.au/judgments/Judgments/fca/single/2021/2021fca0879

Challenges basic patent black letter concept law that only humans can be inventors. They argue DABUS AI system can autonomously perform the "inventive step" required to be eligible for a patent.

How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch With Reality

DSA ADS Course - 2021

Climate Science, Bad Science, Crisis in Science, Climate Scenarios

Decision-makers and policy-makers depend on professional data scientists to make optimal decisions. Timely self-correcting mechanisms using near real-time data is critical. Failures of climate science and abuse/misuse of scenario planning is instructive of what NOT to do.

Scenario planning is a prudent part of high value data science yet MUST be combined with applied PROBABILITY and analyzed with context to goals and fluid situational reality.

June, 2021

Evolutionary Game Theory: Game Theory, Applied Probability, Scenario Planning

DSA ADS Course - 2021

Game Theory, Applied Probability, Scenario Planning, Evolutionary Game Theory

Important to have basic knowledge of game theory. 

Game theory considers problems confronted by decision-makers with diverging interests like firms competing for a market. Players have to choose between strategies whose payoff depends on their rivals’ strategies. This interdependence leads to a mutual ‘outguessing’, as with chess (she thinks that I think that she thinks…).

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