# Probability Theory

## The Probability Conflation: A Reply

January, 2023

Abstract

We respond to Tetlock et al. (2022) showing 1) how expert judgment fails to reflect tail risk, 2) the lack of compatibility between forecasting tournaments and tail risk assessment methods (such as extreme value theory).More importantly, we communicate a new result showing a greater gap between the properties of tail expectation and those of the corresponding probability.

## Probability Theory and Examples - DSA ADS Course 2023

This DSA ADS course is part of a series of courses that demonstrate how to use applied data science with high performance compute and high quality data to optimize decision making in real world scenarios.

Discuss application of probability theory in real world scenarios.

## Randomness and Coincidences - Reconciling Intuition and Probability Theory - DSA ADS Course 2023

This DSA ADS course is part of a series of courses that demonstrate how to use applied data science with high performance compute and high quality data to optimize decision making in real world scenarios.

Discuss application of probability theory in real world scenarios.

## Foundations of the Theory of Probability - DSA ADS Course 2023

This DSA ADS course is part of a series of courses that demonstrate how to use applied data science with high performance compute and high quality data to optimize decision making in real world scenarios.

Discuss the foundations of probability theory and apply to real world scenarios.

In depth review of classic textbook "Foundations of the Theory of Probability" by Kolmogorov.

## Probability - Theory and Examples - Durrett

This DSA ADS course is part of a series of courses that demonstrate how to use applied data science with high performance compute and high quality data to optimize decision making in real world scenarios.

Discuss application of probability theory in real world scenarios.

## The Causal Foundations of Applied Probability and Statistics

Probabilistic Logic, Probability Theory, Causality, Causal Inference, Applied Probability, Statistics

Discuss applied probability theory and causality.

The Causal Foundations of Applied Probability and Statistics - November, 2020

Abstract

## Introduction to Probability

Probability Theory, Applied Probability, Probabilistic Causation, Causal Inference

Understanding applied probability and accurate assessment of real-world risk is a critical part of high value data science.