Probability Theory

January, 2023

Abstract

We respond to Tetlock et al. (2022) showing 1) how expert judgment fails to reflect tail risk, 2) the lack of compatibility between forecasting tournaments and tail risk assessment methods (such as extreme value theory).More importantly, we communicate a new result showing a greater gap between the properties of tail expectation and those of the corresponding probability.

DSA ADS Course 2023

This DSA ADS course is part of a series of courses that demonstrate how to use applied data science with high performance compute and high quality data to optimize decision making in real world scenarios.

Discuss application of probability theory in real world scenarios.

DSA ADS Course 2023

This DSA ADS course is part of a series of courses that demonstrate how to use applied data science with high performance compute and high quality data to optimize decision making in real world scenarios.

Discuss application of probability theory in real world scenarios.

DSA ADS Course 2023

This DSA ADS course is part of a series of courses that demonstrate how to use applied data science with high performance compute and high quality data to optimize decision making in real world scenarios.

Discuss the foundations of probability theory and apply to real world scenarios.

In depth review of classic textbook "Foundations of the Theory of Probability" by Kolmogorov.

DSA ADS Course 2023

This DSA ADS course is part of a series of courses that demonstrate how to use applied data science with high performance compute and high quality data to optimize decision making in real world scenarios.

Discuss application of probability theory in real world scenarios.

DSA ADS Course - 2023

Probabilistic Logic, Probability Theory, Causality, Causal Inference, Applied Probability, Statistics

Discuss applied probability theory and causality.

The Causal Foundations of Applied Probability and Statistics - November, 2020

Abstract

DSA ADS Course - 2022

Probability Theory, Applied Probability, Probabilistic Causation, Causal Inference

Understanding applied probability and accurate assessment of real-world risk is a critical part of high value data science.

DSA ADS Course - 2021

Applied Probability, Probability Theory, Medical Diagnosis, Medical Testing, Probability of Diagnosis 

Probability theory and accuracy in medical diagnosis. Estimating probability of diagnosis is critical job of front line physicians and many overestimate probabilities ordering unwarranted tests and overtreatment. 

Textbook example of failure of many physicians to accurately compute probability - JAMA study in 2021

November, 2000

Abstract