Discovering and forecasting extreme events via active learning in neural operators
On 8 Jan, 2023 By admin 0 Comments
Forecasting
Forecasting Global Weather with Graph Neural Networks
On 16 Feb, 2022 By admin 0 Comments
February, 2022
Abstract
The Cost-Benefit Fallacy: Why Cost-Benefit Analysis Is Broken and How to Fix It
On 1 Feb, 2022 By admin 0 Comments
DSA ADS Course - 2022
Cost-benefit Analysis, Cost-benefit Fallacy, Public Investment Planning, Forecasting, Resource Allocation, Behavioral Science
Discuss cost-benefit analysis, cost-benefit fallacy, public investment planning, forecasting, resource allocation, welfare economics, behavioral science and behavioral economics.
What if scenario estimates are highly inaccurate and biased? What are potential costs of scenario inaccuracies seriously distorting effective resource allocation?
Causal Knowledge Guided Societal Event Forecasting
On 12 Dec, 2021 By admin 0 Comments
December, 2021
Abstract
Forecasting for COVID19 has Failed
On 11 Aug, 2021 By admin 0 Comments
June, 2020
DSA ADS Course - 2021
Forecasting, COVID19, John Ioannidis, Public Policy, Health Policy, Causal Inference, Forensic Medicine, Causality, Intuitive Causation, Probabilistic Causation
Forecasting is usually impossible in high causal density environments. Scenario planning with applied probability and adaptation to near real-time data is optimal strategy. Epidemic forecasting is usually a fools errand yet appropriate analysis of experience and historical precedent is helpful.
How to Price an Election: A Martingale Approach- Discussion with Dhruv Madeka
On 10 Oct, 2020 By admin 0 Comments
On Single Point Forecasts for Fat Tailed Variables
On 5 Aug, 2020 By admin 0 Comments
July, 2020
Abstract
Examination of Statistical Accuracy of COVID-19 Daily Death Count Predictions
On 28 Jul, 2020 By admin 0 Comments
May, 2020
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: This paper provides a formal evaluation of the predictive performance of a model (and updates) developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) for predicting daily deaths attributed to COVID-19 for the United States.
STUDY DESIGN: To assess the accuracy of the IHME models, we examine both forecast accuracy, as well as the predictive performance of the 95% prediction intervals (PI).
Predicting the Trajectory of Any COVID19 Epidemic From the Best Straight Line
On 29 Jun, 2020 By admin 0 Comments
Predictability of Week-3–4 Average Temperature and Precipitation over the Contiguous United States
On 17 May, 2017 By admin 0 Comments
This paper demonstrates that an operational forecast model can skillfully predict week 3-4 averages of temperature and precipitation over the contiguous U.S.