Forecasting

Examination of Statistical Accuracy of COVID-19 Daily Death Count Predictions

May, 2020

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: This paper provides a formal evaluation of the predictive performance of a model (and updates) developed by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) for predicting daily deaths attributed to COVID-19 for the United States.

STUDY DESIGN: To assess the accuracy of the IHME models, we examine both forecast accuracy, as well as the predictive performance of the 95% prediction intervals (PI).

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