Excess death estimates from multiverse analysis in 2009–2021
DSA ADS Course, 2022
Data Quality, Black Box Models, Bad Models, Origins of SARS-CoV-2, Epidemiology, Non-pharmaceutical Interventions, Mitigation Strategies, COVID19, Health Policy, Public Policy
Review data quality evaluations, bad model design, policy decision-making based on data science, black box models, unwarranted assumptions in models, and evidence based policy making with near real-time data.
Although every emerging infectious disease occurs in a unique context, the behaviour of previous pandemics ofers an insight into the medium- and long-term outcomes of the current threat. Where an informative historical analogue exists, epidemiologists and policymakers should consider how the insights of the past can inform current forecasts and responses.
C19 Treatment Decision Tree by Dr. Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH
Pathophysiological Basis and Rationale for Early Outpatient Treatment of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Infection
Background: Low aerobic capacity has been associated with increased mortality in short-term studies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive power of aerobic capacity for mortality in middle-aged men during 45-years of follow-up.
Design: The study design was a population-based prospective cohort study.