Bayesian Decision Analysis

Optimal Decision Making Processes Include Multi-team Analyses - DSA ADS Course - 2022

DSA ADS Course - 2022

Decision Processes, Ad-Hoc Analysis, Big Data Analysis, Causal Data Science, Bayesian Decision Analysis

Single analysis will yield conclusions that are overconfident and unrepresentative and thus suboptimal for decision making processes. Using a single-analysis framework can create an illusion of reality leading to disaster.

Incorporating a multi-analysis framework - using different conceptual frameworks - will result in superior decisions over long time scales (not all of the time but most of the time).

A Personal Journey into Bayesian Networks

May, 2018


This report contains personal memories from the years that Bayesian networks were developed, 1978-1988. It was written as a section in The Book of Why: The new science of cause and effect (Pearl and Mackenzie, 2018) but was taken out to meet space limitations. I am archiving these memories with the hope that they will prove useful for future archivists.