Applied Probability

DSA ADS Course - 2021

Graphical Models, Bayesian Networks, Applied Probability, Probabilistic Causation, Causal Inference

Applied data scientists require high-level understanding of probability theory and specialized techniques to design systems and solve problems in the real world.  Graphical model formalism provides a natural framework for the design of new data science systems.

DSA ADS Course - 2021

Probability Theory, Applied Probability, Probabilistic Causation, Causal Inference

Understanding applied probability and accurate assessment of real-world risk is a critical part of high value data science.

DSA ADS Course - 2021

Probabilistic Logic, Probability Theory, Causality, Causal Inference, Applied Probability, Statistics

Discuss applied probability theory and causality.

The Causal Foundations of Applied Probability and Statistics - November, 2020

Abstract

DSA ADS Course - 2021

Applied Probability, Causal Data Science, Causal Graphical Models

Discuss probability theory and practice using graphs and causal reasoning.

2013 - Introduction to Probabilities, Graphs, and Causal Models

DSA ADS Course - 2021

Game Theory, Applied Probability, Scenario Planning, Evolutionary Game Theory

Important to have basic knowledge of game theory. 

Game theory considers problems confronted by decision-makers with diverging interests like firms competing for a market. Players have to choose between strategies whose payoff depends on their rivals’ strategies. This interdependence leads to a mutual ‘outguessing’, as with chess (she thinks that I think that she thinks…).

DSA ADS Course - 2021

Applied Probability, Causal Data Science, Probabilistic Reasoning, Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Reasoning under Uncertainty: Some Monte Carlo Results - 1991

Abstract

DSA ADS Course - 2021

The Sure-Thing Principle, Causal Reasoning, Data-Driven Decision-Making, Algorithm Decision Making, Applied Probability, Nonlinear Utility Scale, Simpson’s Paradox, Blyth’s Game

Discuss applied probability, causal reasoning and types of decision making processes. Apply to both traditional algorithms and machine learning algorithms in decision making processes.

See also: The Sure-Thing Principle

The Sure Thing - 2021

Abstract

DSA ADS Course - 2021

The Sure-Thing Principle, Causal Reasoning, Data-Driven Decision-Making, Algorithm Decision Making, Applied Probability

Discuss applied probability, causal reasoning and types of decision making processes. Apply to both traditional algorithms and machine learning algorithms in decision making processes.

See also: The Sure Thing

The Sure-Thing Principle - 2016

Abstract

DSA ADS Course - 2021

Applied Probability, Probability Theory, Medical Diagnosis, Medical Testing, Probability of Diagnosis 

Probability theory and accuracy in medical diagnosis. Estimating probability of diagnosis is critical job of front line physicians and many overestimate probabilities ordering unwarranted tests and overtreatment. 

Textbook example of failure of many physicians to accurately compute probability - JAMA study in 2021